Travel/Preparation

ALBURQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO---Gray skies, mini snow flurries, and howling winds greeted the Aztecs as they arrived here for a critical three-game conference showdown with New Mexico.  The team (and it's announcer) flew in yesterday afternoon on Southwest, with a turbulent bumpy landing that led pitching coach Rusty Filter to rename our flight choice "Knuckleball Airlines", and led head coach Tony Gwynn to consider the merits of making the 11-hour drive instead of the 90-minute flight.  

The team immediately went from the airport to the University of New Mexico to stage a practice, using the team's half-astroturf, half-grass field.  Coach Gwynn placed a screen inside the batting cage, behind the plate, and then sat on a chair behind that screen, instructing his hitters not to hit the ball out of the park (not an easy feat, given the icy but blasting wind, mile-high conditions, and inviting fences).  Instead, the hitters were told just to work on their swings, the plane of the bat traveling through the strike zone, and hitting the ball the other way.  Trying not to do too much at the plate is a constant refrain from the coaching staff, pounding the message home to try and counter the natural, youthful tendency to pull and hook the ball in search of a homerun.  It was a good practice to help acclimatize the young kids into the thin air while also getting the blood flowing after a day of travel.  

What's there to do in Albuquerque?  Well, I'm sure there's something, but it doesn't exist around the team hotel.  The Drury is actually very nice, with a hot, free breakfast buffet and complimentary wings and drinks for Happy Hour.  It just happens to be in the middle of an industrial complex.  I asked the clerk at the front desk where the nearest sundry store was.  He told me it was "a block" down the street at a Chevron station.  1 mile+ later, I found it, after walking past dozens of empty office buildings.  Oh, and there's a Clear Channel radio multiplex across the street.  Yay, dark reminders!

This morning provided a fascinating glimpse into Coach Gwynn's teaching style.  The team bused to the Albuquerque Baseball Academy after breakfast, an indoor hitting facility.  After 7 or 8 rounds of BP, Gwynn huddled the team around a video monitor, where the Academy had frame-by-frame recordings of the swings of various MLB players.  

"Head behind the ball, head behind the ball," said Gwynn, "doesn't matter who you put up there (on the screen), you'll see their head is behind the ball."

Up popped Joe Mauer, A-Rod, Giambi, Soriano, Carlos Lee, and others.  Sure enough, at the point of contact, the head was always behind the ball, the arms were extended in the hitting V, the eyes were watching the ball into the hitting zone.

"Look at the bat plane through the zone now," as the next frames clicked into place.  "Flat.  Flat.  Flat.  Look at the knob of the bat.  The knob of the bat goes to the ball, the barrel follows.  Watch."

The video of A-Rod would back up two frames, and there it was.  The knob, then the bat barrel.  

Next, Gwynn asked the video tech to put up some different players.  Derrek Lee, bad bat plane, rolling over on a fastball and hitting a grounder to third.  

"See?  That's the bad, low bat plane I get on you guys about, and look at the result."

Then, the video tech had to smile at the next group of hitters Gwynn asked to see on the screen.  The tech said, "nobody's asked us to look at the David Eckstein video before!"

But there was little Eck, with the Cards, taking (as Gwynn put it) "97-mile-an-hour cheddar" to right field.

"Here's a Punch and Judy guy, but look again.  Head behind the ball, he's choking up on the bat, but the bat plane is flat, and he takes that pitch (a Bartolo Colon fastball) on a line into right field."

I've always heard about Gwynn's exploits as "Captain Video", but to watch it in person as a lesson imparted to his hitters was fascinating for a seam-head like me.  

The last message delivered to the team was one of focus, heightened awareness, staying on the little things that lead to success, and trusting your ability.  I don't know what SDSU's results will be this weekend in New Mexico.  I do know that they are ready to play.  Catch all the action on goaztecs.com, I'll have the call at 5pm (Pacific Time) tonight and tomorrow, and 11am on Sunday.  

On the Road with SDSU Baseball

I join you from my hotel room in Las Vegas, feeling just about the way most people feel the 3rd day they wake up in this town: worn out and dehydrated.  There is something about Sin City, between the dry, desert air, and that bizarre smoky-yet-not inner casino air, that just sucks the moisture right out of you.  But enough about me.  As Tony Gwynn said on the bus last night, this is a business trip, and the Aztecs have taken care of business so far, winning last night's opener against UNLV by a 15-4 count at windswept Earl Wilson Stadium.

As the bus pulled up to the stadium yesterday, the flags atop the press box almost served as a taunt as well as a warning: Abandon Hope, All Ye Pitchers Who Enter Here.  The three flags were starched in the 35+ MPH breeze, all three pointing directly out from home plate to center field.  The tiny flags circling the outfield fence all seemed to be pointing directly out, no matter which field you looked at.  Any contact that got up in the air was going to be trouble.  The Aztecs' counter-offer was a pitcher who doesn't allow much contact, Stephen Strasburg.  

Strassy wasn't bad by any means last night, but he wasn't in supreme command either.  The Rebels touched him up for 7 hits in 6 innings, but Strasburg still struck out 13, walked only one, and held UNLV to one run.  His fastball was getting hit a little bit, so Stephen relied on the slider to help him through.  It also looked like his mechanics were a bit off, as Strasburg was getting out in front and yanking some pitches way off the plate.  But in the end UNLV was still no match for college baseball's best.  

It was on offense where the Aztecs made the most headway on Thursday, with the bottom of their order erupting to score seven runs.  Easton Gust and Ryan O'Sullivan not only had three hit nights, but both used the whole field and played their best offensive games of the season.  O'Sullivan is the kid this SDSU coaching staff would love to get going with the bat, and he looked sharp last night, hitting an outside fastball to right-center for a double before pulling a single in his next plate appearance.  

Erik Castro continues to maul opposing pitchers.  He got a fat pitch in the middle innings and absolutely lost it in the night, blasting a three-run homer that simply disappeared.  I can't tell you if it was wind-aided or not.  The ball might have just vaporized.  Pat Colwell and Brandon Decker also continued their fine table-setting, with both extending their hitting streaks, to 11 and 13 games respectively.  

Today the Aztecs went right back to UNLV for batting practice, and they will play game two of the weekend series tonight at 7pm on www.goaztecs.com.  Jon Berger, the changeup specialist, gets the ball against UNLV freshman Tanner Peters.  Berger struck out 10 over 8 innings, allowing just one run in his first matchup with the Rebels this year.  He will be tested by the conditions today without question.  Last year SDSU and UNLV played an 18-16 game here...but as long as the Aztecs keep putting up the big run totals, their pitching staff should have enough to at least limit the windswept damage against an overmatched Rebels squad.  

The Bleakest of Seasons?

Recently Chris Ello wrote that he could not remember a year in which less was expected of the hometown nine, our San Diego Padres.  Between the payroll slash, the departure of Trevor Hoffman, trade of Khalil Greene, and the assemblage of rag arms cobbled together from the waiver wire, there's a lot to get unexcited about with the 2009 Pads.  But is it really the bleakest of years?  I wanted to go back to the year I remembered as one in which, on Opening Day, I knew the team had NO CHANCE of winning.  The final year at Qualcomm Stadium, 2003.  Let's compare, shall we?

Look back at the 2003 Padres roster, by following this link through to Baseball Reference.  The first thing you may notice is the pure quantity of names on the roster.  The Padres used 27 different pitchers that season, with the back end of their pitching staff in a near-constant state of flux.  Sound familiar?  With Trevor Hoffman sidelined by surgery, Brandon Villafuerte and Jaret Wright got the first cracks at the closer job, and both failed miserably.  The bottom two slots in the rotation amounted to an open tryout, with Kevin Jarvis spending most of the year on the DL, and castoffs like Brian Tollberg, Mike Bynum, Clay Condrey and Roger Deago alternately trying and failing to stick in the big leagues.  

On offense, for the 2nd straight year, Phil Nevin got injured in spring training, this time falling while trying to learn the outfield (man, that's funny thinking back, how the Pads actually were going to put Nev in the outfield and try to get away with it).  Nevin had been moved to make way for uber-prospect Sean Burroughs at third base.  Burroughs and Xavier Nady were the exciting young hitters in the lineup, and veterans Rondell White and Mark Loretta were there for support.  Ryan Klesko was the star batter for San Diego.  

Now, let's look at 2009 for the Padres.  There are a number of similarities, certainly on the pitching staff.  While the 2009 team has two established starters in Peavy and Young, the 2003 team had more young, exciting arms in Peavy, Oliver Perez, and Adam Eaton.  They were going to take their lumps in 2003 but offered promise for the future.  There is little promise for the 2009 group, however, because we know Peavy is as likely to be traded as anything else this year.  Beyond Chris Young, you can take Shawn Hill, Kevin Correia and Walter Silva and put them in the same bag as Carlton Loewer, Kevin Jarvis and Clay Condrey.  Shake 'em up, pour 'em out, none of them are going to deliver positive results on the mound.  

Offensively the '09 Padres have a rock to lean on in Adrian Gonzalez, who is better than any Padre hitter in 2003.  Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff still have the possibility of improving to the point where they become solid performers, so you can put them in the Burroughs/Nady mold.  I would rate the '09 prospects ahead of the '03 guys on offense, just because we know in retrospect that Burroughs was a bust.  Then, you're into a group of marginal talent.  Jody Gerut in '09 vs. Mark Kotsay in '03.  David Eckstein vs. Mark Loretta.  Gary Bennett vs. Henry Blanco.  Not much to choose from or to distinguish one group from the other.  

And here's one more similarity between the two years: in 2003, the Padres were working toward something, namely the closing of Qualcomm and the opening of Petco Park.  There was the promise that something better was on the horizon, and that fans would just have to suffer through a lousy year in the meantime.  In 2009, it's a little more hazy of a target, but the Padres are working toward a time when Jeff Moorad takes full control as owner, and the team can start to rebuild its place in the NL West.  In the interim, it's 5-for-$5 food deals and value pricing, in the middle of an economy that's WAY worse off now than it was 6 years ago.  

In 2003, the Padres made it to June as the WORST team in baseball.  They quite famously lost two out of three to the Tigers in early June to fall to 18-43, the worst record in baseball.  Remember, that was the year the Tigers finished 43-119, one loss away from the all-time MLB record.  Then, Rod Beck came out from a trailer outside the Cubs' AAA Iowa ballpark and resurrected his career for the final time, sweating his way to a 20-for-20 saves performance down the stretch.  "Shooter" helped rescue the Pads from 100 losses, as they finished 64-98.  

What will 2009 offer?  Just about the same, I'd expect.  There won't be any Rod Beck sightings, and there is no new ballpark to get excited about.  The Padres' offense will depend on the development of Headley and Kouzmanoff, but their pitching staff is a lost cause beyond the few holdovers from better times.  So to answer Chris's open question, I'll say that while this may not be the least anticipated year in Padres' history, it's on the list.  

619 Sports will be at Petco Park today for Opening Day coverage, so look for my reports from the ballpark later today.  

Connect/Disconnect

Today's SDSU/Padres doubleheader at Petco can be seen with a ticket ranging from $16-$36.  If you're going to stay for both games, I guess $16 isn't bad.  But I've never felt that baseball was a game you could charge a high price to attend.  It's just way too random.  

I remember vividly the last time I overpaid for tickets.  It was also my one and only ticket bought from a scalper.  Mitzi and I went to Dodger Stadium on July 13th, 1996 to see Hideo Nomo during Nomo-mania.  The Dodgers were facing the Giants, and a rookie left-hander was on the mound for SF.  This was as near of a sure-thing as you had in baseball.  We paid $20 for $8 bleacher seats, and proceeded to watch Nomo and the Dodgers get shut out by Shawn Estes and the Giants 7-0.  The team played horribly.  Looking back at that boxscore (click through the link above), MAN what a nondescript Dodgers team that was!  Chad Fonville, Greg Gagne, Tom Prince and friends couldn't handle Estes, who whiffed 11 in one of the best starts (as it turned out) of his career.  The highlight of the night was the Popeye's Chicken that we brought with us, and the hilarious sight of Antonio Osuna trying (and failing miserably) to work on throwing a changeup in the LA bullpen.  He couldn't get the grip right and every once in a while he would just throw it off the bullpen gate.  At Dodger Stadium that's a big metal gate, so while people were just snoozing in left field or bouncing the beach ball, every once in a while there would be a loud BANG! and sure enough it was Osuna trying to throw the change again.  

What is the point of this little eddy of baseball fun?  You NEVER can predict a great baseball game.  Sometimes the game just stinks.  Sometimes the home team gets shut out on four hits by somebody you've never heard of, somebody who doesn't turn into a Hall-of-Famer, just a journeyman.  Sometimes they kick the ball around and get picked off first.  Even the very best teams have these games.  

So that's why baseball HAS to be the most affordable major league sport, by far.  You've just got to be able to go to a game on the cheap, walk up and buy a bleacher seat for $8, sit in the stands and laugh at the names of the players.  This town has had enough bad baseball to know this.  It's finally taken the economic depression, combined with the local malaise, for that connection to be made.  

The Padres will have more of those clunker-type games, many more, than some other clubs this year.  At least they have recognized this.  When you see their promotional commercials now, it's VALUE VALUE VALUE!  Smiling Octomom look-alike woman holding up all her calorie babies: popcorn, pretzel and cookie YAY!  $5 for 5!  Value weekends!  

Value parking?  Yeah, good luck with that one.

But if the team is going to be a non-contender with little to root for, at least you can give people pretzels and cookies and a nice night at the ballpark.  That's connecting with a fanbase that has little money and little interest.  

When I see the new Yankee Stadium and the Mets' new ballpark, and the AVERAGE price for a seat to see a Yankees game is now over $70...that's a complete disconnect.  From the Washington Post:

Opening now, with ticket prices up to $2,625 for the Yankees and $695 for the Mets _ yes, that's a single game _ they may seem out of step with a suddenly and sharply more restrained era. But coming near the end of a ballpark boom that began with Baltimore's Camden Yards in 1992, they mark a defining moment for a sport ever caught between trying to keep modern while reverentially retooling its past.

Wow.  That must have made a lot of sense 3 years ago, right after all the folks in the boardrooms laughed about how they were dragging in money hand-over-fist with Credit Default Swaps and chanted together: there is no housing bubble!  Now, how does $2,695 for a seat sound?  For a 9-inning baseball game?  At this point just make every seat $500 and have chocolate run out of the water fountains.  Gild the plastic silverware with gold.  

Who's going to fill that $2,000+ per game inner ring at Yankee Stadium?  I thought that was supposed to be all the Wall Street fatcats...are we going to be seeing bailout money on display behind home plate?  AIG bonuses converted smoothly into popcorn, peanuts, Cracker Jack?

I've never rooted for the Yankees, and I never could.  But now, their very home no longer smacks of tradition, history, championships.  It's money, money, money.  It's garish.  Gross.  Hey look at us, anyone in here's got to be golden, because we can throw down $500+ to just go see a major league ballgame!  What, are you jealous of our success?  The Apprentice theme is going to be piped in through the bathroom walls.  

Here's to many a night of profits flushed, and some sap plunking down $975 to a scalper so he and his lady can eat a Gray's Papaya they smuggled in while watching A.J. Burnett walk six Orioles.  The O's can win 7-0, and maybe someone can watch through their monocle as Edwar Ramirez works on his changeup.

Sour Apple

Disappointing.  There is no shame in losing in the semifinals of the NIT, and the Aztecs are to be commended for setting the single-season school record with 26 wins (and a final record of 26-10).  But I am sure that for the seniors who played their last game tonight, they are disappointed with a game in which they simply did not play very well at all.

You'd much rather get carried out on your shield than slip on a banana peel, but the Aztecs were left red-faced after 19 turnovers and numerous bad shots in the second half.  You'd rather go down swishing than clanking, but Richie Williams and Lorrenzo Wade combined for 3-16 shooting (Richie 0-7), 9 points (all Wade), and six turnovers.   After a first half in which SDSU turned it over 10 times, often carelessly, UCSD head coach Chris Carlson and I both thought on the halftime show that it was a good sign, as the Aztecs clearly had their best basketball ahead of them.  Then, they came right out and saw the 1-point halftime deficit balloon up to 13.  

At some point, after SDSU had twice rallied within six only to see Baylor re-establish their double-digit lead, the realization that this was it clearly settled into the team.  The last few minutes of the game were quite forgettable.  So I'm going to go ahead and forget them.

The wallpaper on my laptop is a picture of Kyle Spain, beaming, in a sea of fans, holding up one finger as the students stormed the court after the St. Mary's win.  I'm going to keep that photo up for a little while, because that's how I want to remember this team, and this senior class.  Their last home game is a much sweeter memory than their last game.

A Rare Spring Storm

SDSU's men's basketball team is heading to the Final Four of the NIT for the first time in school history.  Last night's thrilling, tense, roller-coaster 70-66 win over St. Mary's at Cox Arena gave this class of seniors every chance possible to exorcise their demons.  They faced a tough team which had beaten them twice before.  They fell into a familiar pattern, building and then squandering a large lead.  With less than two minutes to play, it was all there for the Aztecs.  Take care of business on your home court, rise up for this moment, and you will be rewarded with a trip to New York City.

And they took care of business.  With a clutch basket from Tim Shelton, one of the few returners for next year.  With (finally) a clutch free throw from their senior point guard Richie Williams, after he missed a couple of big ones.  With, as always, tough defense, athleticism, and the ability to contest shots and force turnovers.  

The moment was one of pure release, as the final shot for St. Mary's clanked away, and the final second ticked off the clock.  And then, a scene of pure release, as the student section and fans stormed the court to bounce and celebrate with their players.

Hey, I love this stuff.  In our city, are you kidding me?  What do we ever have to celebrate, especially in college sports?  Double-extra especially in San Diego State sports?!?!?  When I came to this town in 1990, SDSU had a marginal football team with some good offense and a maddening tendency to come close but not win big games.  The basketball team was an embarrasment, and after 1991, the baseball team never sniffed a regional again.  

Not much changed over the next decade, except the football team got worse.  Gateway games, the real wins that could lift a school and a program, all ended up the same way.  Either an embarrassing rout or the ever more painful close-but-no-cigar-loss.  In 1999, Steve Fisher arrived to take over the basketball team, long removed from the Fab Five, now an assistant coach with the NBA Sacramento Kings.  In his first season, the Aztecs went winless in conference play.

This senior class has posted the most wins of any group in school history.  But their legacy was going to be a mixed one, with suspensions and late letdowns marking the path as much as any success.  Honestly, they had never won anything without Brandon Heath, no conference titles, no postseason success.  Now, in addition to a 26-win (and counting) season, the class of Lorrenzo Wade, Kyle Spain, Richie Williams, Ryan Amoroso, Matt Thomas and Kelvin Davis (who may return next year as a medical redshirt) has an indelible moment in Aztecs history, a visceral memory which they will keep for their entire lives.  

You don't hang a banner for a NIT-Final Four appearance, but if you're us, if you're a San Diego State fan, you do storm the court.  It may look silly from the outside, like a bunch of rubes who can't act like they've been there before.  Guilty as charged.  We haven't.  But now, we have this.  And it's pretty good.

SDSU Baseball sweeps Southern Utah: Highlights

Last night's game was a come-from-the-dead 8-7 thriller, with the Aztecs scoring 7 in the bottom of the 8th after trailing 6-0 in the 6th.  Scott over at SDSU has done another nice job putting together the highlight package from the game, click here for the comeback heroics.

Today was a more "typical" 11-4 win, with Erik Castro continuing his ridiculously hot homestand with another 4-hit game out of the cleanup spot.  Castro is also playing a fine third base and giving Tony Gwynn a very offensive lineup, with the talented Chris Wilson grabbing hold of the #5 spot in the order and the catcher's job that Castro used to inhabit more frequently.  

You can really see pieces of the Aztecs' offense coming together.  Brandon Meredith gets better every game, Colwell and Decker set the table, Wilson is a talented, aggressive hitter, and Vaughn can do it all.  Today Jomel Torres also reached four times from the #8 hole, and Ryan O'Sullivan finally delivered a big two-out RBI single.  He added an amazing catch later in the game, hopefully those highlights will be up tomorrow.  

Goldy Simmons pitched pretty darn solid and has a big-league frame at 6'5" and around 230.  Matt Skipper continues to impress me.  The 6'9" freshman from Colorado pitched the last four innings, didn't walk a batter, and the only run he allowed came when a flare bad-hopped over the charging Vaughn's head in right for a fluke triple.  These are the TUESDAY pitchers.  

The Aztecs are 16-8 and the biggest test of the season is next, a three-game series at TCU this weekend.  Ello will be there all weekend long so I'm sure we'll hear a lot from Fort Worth.

How To Ruin Your Own Column

...in three easy steps.

1) Start with a predetermined conclusion

2) Make the boldest possible statement

3) Disprove it yourself within three paragraphs.

I give you Thomas Boswell, dismissing Stephen Strasburg in the Washington Post.

Thomas starts with a discussion that in the abstract is both worthy and interesting.  Is there any historical value in taking a pitcher #1 in the MLB amateur draft?  What's the historic success rate of pitchers #1 vs. hitters #1?  

Well, Thomas has already decided.  The answer is hitter, and he's sure of it.

"History is unequivocal. Strasburg, no matter how much he dominates college hitters, will probably either be a .500 pitcher with a 150-150 record, or he'll be a bust."

And he's going to go a step further: picking a pitcher #1 has never worked EVER.

"Nobody -- n-o-b-o-d-y -- has used a No. 1 overall pick on a pitcher and been glad they did it. Thirteen teams have tried it since the draft began in 1965. Nine have gotten egg on their faces. The lucky four got Andy Benes (155-139), Tim Belcher (146-140), Mike Moore (161-176) and Floyd Bannister (134-143). No Hall of Famers. Just a bunch of guys who could throw a ball through a wall when they were young but never became great."

OK, so the very best #1 pitcher ever taken in the draft was Andy Benes.  Got it?  As Boswell continues to hammer the point home, oops!  The back door swings open, and in creeps the guy he doesn't want to talk about.

"The only reliever of note: ex-Oriole Gregg Olson. Josh Beckett (89-62) may end up high on the list eventually."

There he is, after Boswell has already gone through starters and down to relievers.  Josh Beckett.  Who?  Oh yeah, the former #1 pick of the Florida Marlins, who went on to lead the Marlins to the 2003 World Series, and was named MVP, and pitched the clincher at Yankee Stadium.  And then, was moved on to the Red Sox in exchange for Hanley Ramirez, a franchise shortstop who is a Marlins All-Star right now.  And in Boston, Beckett won another World Series.

I guess he's a n-o-b-o-d-y.  Oh, and then there's David Price.  Do the Rays regret that pick too?

What really irritates me about this style of arrogant writing is that he started with a decent idea, and makes a decent point in one section of the column.  But he totally loses me with his dismissive attitude toward facts that don't please his thesis.  I've been to every Strasburg start this year, and EVERY time I've had the chance to see a gun he's been 97-98-99 with a slider that can be 84 or up to 93.  Oh, but the time Boswell saw him HE saw 93-97 so everyone else must be full of it.  

Now, is he right about not paying mid-career prices for the formative years of a pitcher?  Maybe.   But who is the real-life hitter who Boswell thinks the Nats should take instead of Strasburg?

Oops again.  Leaves that part out.  But he does tantalize his Post readers with Chipper-ARod-Strawberry-Griffey-Mauer.  Not that there is anyone like that necessarily in this year's draft, or even an obvious #2 pick behind Strasburg.  Nope, just take a hitter, because I saw Ben McDonald and he was a bust, and this guy's gonna be a bust too. 

Ivory tower writing, rife with the assumption that the reader will just sleepwalk through his list without noticing the gems he's trying to cover up with soil.  
Late add: here is Rob Neyer writing a similar column, but MUCH better.  Note how he just lets the facts tell the story.  His discussion of Ben McDonald's a little different from Boswell's, isn't it?

The Weekend That Was: The WBC

Was the WBC low on your sports priority list this weekend?  Apparently it was for Team USA as well.  Playing with a deliberately short-handed roster, a pitching staff which we know isn't anywhere near the best this country can offer, and a manager who last made a meaningful contribution to the game back in 1986, Our Team stumbled through Our Game like a bunch of kids who didn't know which field the game was on.  

The result was a 9-4 loss to Japan, an elimination in the semifinals of the World Baseball Classic, and a Korea-Japan final which should leave USA Baseball red faced and ashamed.  It wasn't that they lost the game. The greatest baseball team in the world, in a one-game winner-take-all matchup against any other random team of qualified professionals, isn't much of a favorite.  The problem was that the team which took the field with USA across their chests was far from the best team in the world, for reasons which at least partially boggle the mind.  

The team was clearly, unsurprisingly, but sickeningly, unprepared.  When did Team USA players start prepping this offseason?  The broadcast team (Joe Morgan was SO awful yesterday, btw, but that's another story) was fawning over Roy Oswalt, because he actually bothered to throw five times to his local JUCO team while training this offseason!  Meaning that Jake Peavy was not, because Roy was "farther along", that's why the semi-hittable righty was getting the ball in an elimination game over a healthy and well-rested Jake.  

Injury after injury, all of the predictable, spring-training, "side pull"-type, knocked players off the USA roster.  After all, you've gotta be careful, these guys have a REAL season to get ready for, starting in April.  When the call went out for replacements, some guys (like Baltimore's Brian Roberts) jumped in, while others (like Derrek Lee) demurred.  But after Chipper Jones and Kevin Youkilis were taken off the team, USA Baseball only bothered to replace Chipper (with Evan Longoria), but just left the other roster spot empty.  

Ken Rosenthal, in an excellent column which heaps a lot of the blame on Davey Johnson, breaks down a key decision that wasn't made in the game:

With one on and two out in the sixth, Johnson allowed Curtis Granderson, a left-handed hitter, to face the same lefty. Pinch-hitting in that spot would have carried consequences, forcing the defensively challenged Dunn to remain in right field the entire game. But why was Victorino the only outfielder on the bench?

Because the Team USA braintrust had declined to replace the injured Kevin Youkilis with another position player for the final round, choosing only to summon Longoria in place of Chipper Jones.

The addition of Indians outfielder Grady Sizemore would have given Johnson the flexibility to hit Victorino for Granderson and go with a late-inning outfield of Ryan Braun in left, Sizemore in center and Victorino in right.

(sound of tires screeching)

WHAAAAT?  Grady Sizemore was available?  Who cares that he wasn't on the bench in the 6th, why wasn't he the STARTING CF FOR THE WHOLE DAMN TOURNEY??  Anyone going to stand up and argue that Curtis Granderson and Shane Victorino add up to more than the 5-tool Sizemore?  

The entire roster construction is where you need to start when evaluating what went wrong.  OK, Bob Watson can't force the country's top pitchers, like Tim Lincecum and C.C. Sabathia, to commit to their countries.  He can't single-handedly change the culture of baseball in our country, where March is for prep and the big games are played in the fall.  But if you're not going to do a serious enough evaluation to get the best possible willing players onto your roster, then it's time to go.  Is the best USA bullpen really one that contains John Grabow and Joel Hanrahan?  Just asking.  

And is the best USA defense one that has Derek Jeter and Jimmy Rollins in the same lineup, but it's JETER who gets to wear the glove?  Davey Johnson managed his roster like an All-Star team the whole time, acting deferential to the players, promising that one would get 3 at-bats and then the other would come in, etc.  If the manager doesn't take the job seriously and manage to win, no matter how much the players care there will be a filtered effect.  Like Jeter being allowed to get out there and make an error which turned a 2-run game into a 5-run game.  

Hopefully this latest smackdown, getting thoroughly outplayed by Team Japan, will provide USA Baseball with the same wakeup call the USA Basketball team received through a series of Olympic and World Championship embarrasments.  They finally had their pride injured to the point where they got angry, knuckled down and committed to being great.  What resulted was the 2008 Olympics, one of the greatest basketball performances I've seen in my life, and a carryover effect which has led to a terrific NBA season.  Nobody is crying right now that Kobe and Lebron got too much work in the summer.  They are maintaining their elite play.  

This needs to be the same blueprint for USA Baseball.  Put someone in charge-RIGHT NOW-who will start recruiting and planning for 2013.  Force the players to make a multi-year commitment to the team, including agreements as to when team workouts will start in the winter of 2012.  So many of the players talked about this being the biggest thing they've ever done in their career, the most exciting tournament they've ever played...well, time to start acting like it before you get there, not just when it's time to dogpile after a walkoff win.  

Or, just half-ass it like this year and get ready for Opening Day.  Just a couple of weeks away, ya know.  

A Friday Column

Clearing the morning fog on a foggy morning, one multiple-subject column at a time...

• When the SDSU baseball team catches the ball, they can shut down just about any team with their pitching staff.  When they fail to catch the ball, games such as last night's 6-2 loss to BYU happen.  With two outs in the 3rd and nobody on, Nate Solow gave up a little chop single to left, just off Erik Castro's glove.  Next, BYU's big hitter Sean McNoughton hit a little ground ball to short, easiest play in the world. Ryan O'Sullivan didn't get in front of it and tried to pluck the ball, and it stayed down when his glove came up.  The error opened the gates, and as has happened many times in Nate Solow's career, trouble followed.  Nate walked the next better on four pitches, and then grooved a 2-1 fastball to Brandon Relf, who ripped a three-run double down the left-field line.   3-1 BYU, and their pro prospect starter Jeremy Toole, with a mid-'90s fastball and just-OK slider, worked 8 strong innings to protect it.  The Cougars made every play in the field, including two double plays, a diving catch in center, and a runner thrown out at home plate.  The Aztecs gave up two more unearned runs in the 8th on three walks and a missed flyball in right by Cory Vaughn.  Realistically SDSU could have won the game 2-1 if they had just made routine plays in the field.  Oh well, six-game winning streak by the boards.  Strasburg throws tonight, so get there early, hoping for another 2000+ crowd.  
• Oh, just mentioning it again, the BYU/SDSU game tonight will be on XTRA 1360, and I will be doing the play-by-play.  5:45pm pregame, 6:05 first pitch.  Somehow that information didn't make the U-T this morning but did find its way to the North County Times.  Tomorrow's game will be on the radio as well, a 1pm start.  That's part of a 619 Sports-laced doubleheader, as I hand off after the game to Chris Ello at Cox Arena for the SDSU women's first-round NCAA game against DePaul, a 5pm tipoff.  
• I really wish I could be in two places at once, because the SDSU 2nd round NIT game tonight should be a unique affair.  USD's Jenny Craig Pavilion packed with Aztecs fans, and Kansas State in town.  The smaller venue and the out-of-place feel might even enhance the experience.  I hope the atmosphere and energy lift the Aztecs, because there is some concern about the matchup.  The Wildcats have the size underneath to make life very difficult for SDSU.
• 3 hours, 42 minutes.  That was last night's time-of-game for the Korea/Japan game at Petco Park.  A 6-2 game.  Way.  Too.  Slow.  Add the postseason-style ad package to any baseball game and you instantly make the game far less enjoyable.  The slow pace of international play just adds to this.  And, the games are played at times when nobody in their right mind would be watching past the West Coast.  I've got to say, as a big-time fan and supporter of the WBC from the start, they are losing me a bit this time with the space between games and the pace of games.  How can you get a feel as a team when you've played six games in well over two weeks?  
• So much of what's wrong with the WBC comes from the half-in, half-out mentality of MLB.  The 2nd and 3rd rounds are played in the U.S., and spring training is extended and revised to make room for the Classic.  But clubs are wary about risking their stars to the competition, and stars are concerned about injury and disruption.  To me it's clear what needs to happen.  Every four years, you actually treat this thing like a World Cup or Olympics.  You bring MLB to a halt for four weeks in the middle of the season.  Right smack dab in the middle of summer.  Everyone plays.  All the stars are in midseason form, the arms are stretched out and loosened up, and you'll find the players loosening their fears about playing for their country.  It's all about routine for baseball players.  March is for conditioning, not angry games.  June-July is for playing ball.  Put the classic at a time when it can be played well.  Add games to the schedule.  Let people grow and fall in love with the teams, instead of barely being introduced to them before they are gone.
• Oh, but but but...what about the money lost by stopping the season?  What about all the other players, what do they do?  Figure it out.  The NHL closed down for the Winter Olympics.  Soccer clubs loan players and make adjustments.  This is what I mean: if you're REALLY committed to the idea of a WBC, go all-in to make it a great event.  This half in-half out mentality leads to a half-assed Classic which still is OK but could be much, much better.
• Maybe it was just the weak slate of games yesterday until the UCLA game at night, but the first day of March Madness didn't really grab me like it normally does.  I mentioned it in the comments of yesterday's thread, but once again, the networks are doing their best to ruin the sports they pay ungodly sums of money to broadcast.  College hoops games should be 2 hours, period.  Adding 30 minutes of ads and promos just makes the game uneven and fitful in its pace.  And I really am trying not to wish ill on the obnoxiously precocious "very smart little girl" who wants to have her "big girl seat" in the Chevy pickup truck.  Please go away from my life "very smart little girl", and never return.
• Spring has officially begun.  This pleases me.  Last winter sucked.

Coming Together

I was at the baseball game at Tony Gwynn Stadium between Kansas and SDSU.  This two game series is one of those quiet, unnoticed but truly important moments in the Aztecs' season.  The Mountain West (as we saw in hoops) has its identity issues in every sport, but in baseball the conference is seen as weak.  It's hard to get more than one team in from the conference UNLESS a team really schedules well and shows well against tough non-conference competition.  For the last couple of years Tony Gwynn has really been trying to beef up the schedule and test his team against top schools from the West and Midwest.  Last year the Aztecs showed well against USD but lost to teams such as Missouri, Long Beach State, Oregon State and Arizona.  Instead of getting a winning streak revving the Aztecs started 11-10 and finished 31-28. 

This year's start looked very similar to last year, with SDSU beating USD four out of five but struggling against Cal State Fullerton, Kansas State and Pacific.  At 7-6, the Aztecs started last week with their most important win of the year to date, the 6-run 9th inning comeback at UCLA.  Then, last weekend, all three starters shined on the mound as State swept UNLV.  Which brings us back to last night, and Kansas in town for two.  10-5 on the season, with a strong schedule and some impressive wins, the Jayhawks stood between a possible big time winning streak and another stop-and-start pattern for the Aztecs.

Ryan O'Sullivan got the start for SDSU, the freshman coming in from shortstop to make his 4th start on the mound.  Thanks to the aggressive schedule, Ryan has faced nothing but tough teams in his midweek starts, and he came in to last night with an 0-1 record and a 7.04 ERA, by far the highest on the staff.  Ryan has been solid at short but has struggled badly at the plate the last couple weeks, and you could sense he was hungry to contribute to a win.  

For the first time last night, it really came together for O'Sullivan on the mound.  He had a sinking, moving fastball working and retired 12 in a row.  Ryan also showed a solid slider to right-handers and an offspeed breaking ball.  O'Sullivan really has an aggressive, bulldog attitude while he is pitching and the infield fed off his energy and made good plays behind him.  

Cory Vaughn continued his tear in the 2nd inning by taking an outside fastball deep to right-center field for a wall ball.  Most would have had a double on the play but with his speed Vaughn easily made 3rd base.  That same speed revealed itself on the next play, when Mitch Blackburn hit a reasonably hard grounder to short.  Vaughn was moving on contact and the shortstop had no play but first base.  1-0 Aztecs.

Kansas freshman right-hander Lee Ridenhour was spectacular from there.  With a mean fastball and filthy slider, Ridenhour struck out 8 over 7 innings with just three hits allowed.  The Aztecs wouldn't even sniff another scoring threat on the night.  Which left SDSU hanging on for dear life in the late innings.

In the 7th Easton Gust booted a routine grounder for a leadoff error, and after a sacrifice O'Sullivan issued his first walk of the night.  The 7th was uncharted territory for the freshman, but Tony Gwynn stuck with him against Kansas' best hitter, third baseman Tony Thompson.  The sophomore slugger had a 23-game hitting streak active, 1 away from tying the Kansas record.  It looked like he had it on a deep launch to right field, which was carrying over Cory Vaughn's head.  But Cory continued his star performance by somehow catching up to the ball, leaping, and grabbing the ball high over his head on the dead run toward the wall.  Both Kansas baserunners were off and running and Vaughn was able to throw back in and double off the lead runner to end the inning.  A spectacular play!

Chase Thomas came on in relief to start the 8th but walked the leadoff man, and Andrew Leary relieved him.  The right-hander has become an unsung hero on the Aztecs, so I will sing his praises here.  Even after Brandon Meredith made a shaky decision trying to throw for the lead runner on a bunt and failing, Leary came back to strike out three in a row and get the game to the 9th. 

On came Addison Reed, who was a perfect 6-for-6 in saves so far this year.  A leadoff single was followed by a sacrifice and a strikeout.  Then, it was the big hitter Thompson at the plate for one more chance.  Reed got ahead 0-2, Thompson fouled one off, and then Reed lost his grip on a slider and hit Thompson in the back.  Corey Lytle followed with a worm-burner ground ball to 2nd, but Mitch Blackburn booted the play for an error (after making several good plays on the night).  Now with the bases loaded, it was nervous time, but Reed knucked down and got left fielder Nick Faunce to pop out and preserve a 1-0 win.

SDSU has now won 5 straight and 7 of 8, and at 12-6 on the season, the team is coming together and winning games they didn't use to win.  Tonight's game now looms as an even bigger chance, as a win would link up this win streak to the next conference home series against BYU, with the Aztecs' top pitchers coming back around in the rotation.  The game will be on goaztecs.com tonight at 6pm.  

A couple of other notes...

• Why are WBC games as long as World Series games?  I set up last night's Puerto Rico-USA game to tape for 4 hours and still came up short for a 9-inning game.  Grr.  Yay for the USA comeback in the 9th, though.  Now Peavy will get one more chance for redemption, at his favorite stadium in which to pitch, Dodger Stadium.  
• A great first step to redemption for the Aztecs' men last night against Weber State.  Chris was there so I'll leave the analysis to him, but if SDSU can get past their 2nd round opponent and a pretend home court at USD on Friday, they could possibly earn a rematch with St. Mary's and a chance to exorcise one of their demons from this season.

Poor and Predictable SABR coverage on MLB-N

At least three quick disclaimers at the top:

1) I first saw this at another blog, linked at the bottom

2) I'm big friends with several people at BP, and friends with Matt Vasgersian

3) Other than Matt being an ex-Padre announcer, this isn't about SD sports

Putting three ex-players on a studio set isn't going to make anyone smarter.  MLB Network takes a stab at understanding Baseball Prospectus' statistical projection system, known as PECOTA, on their MLB Tonight show, and they swing and miss miserably.  

What's the matter with this handling of the topic?  Let me count the ways...

First, the "chalkboard" walk-through of PECOTA goes out of its way to sound obscure and confusing.  Phenotypic attributes?  This could be partially BP's fault, for an overly wonkish explanation of PECOTA, but there is no understanding of how these 4 metrics are used to predict future performance.  There is no presentation of how successful PECOTA has been in 6 years at actually predicting what happened.  Just a "balanced" intro (some find it gospel, others overkill) and then a quick zip through some confusing stuff, wham bam!  PECOTA explained.  Now, let's present and discuss!

So they put 4 projections for the year on a graphic.  Kevin Youkilis is going to hit .275-20-82, CC Sabathia (or is it C.C. again this year?) is going to win 15 games exactly, etc.  No mention of how PECOTA actually shows a range of performance.  A high-middle-low projection.  A breakout and collapse rate.  Useless little "details" or "facts", which we will quickly learn are not welcome in the upcoming discussion.

Now, Matt comes out of this and immediately frames the discussion.  "This is always controversial stuff..."  He then gives a disclaimer shout-out to Baseball Prospectus, and then turns to the player 'pen for "expert analysis".  

Sean Casey: an ex-player who was signed by a scout

Barry Larkin: an ex-player who was signed by a scout

Harold Reynolds: an ex-player who was signed by a scout

Shockingly, this trio agrees that stats "can't tell a player's heart", that "stats are ridiculous" because there's a "game inside the game", and that "stats have a place", and that place is the arbitration hearing, not the clubhouse.  

Do any of these three players have any idea whatsoever what PECOTA is?  Of course not.  

Question for the MLB Network: where is the BP representative?  Where's NATE SILVER??  You know, the guy who created PECOTA?  Same guy who accurately predicted the election last year on FiveThirtyEight.com?  AND made multiple national TV appearances last year?  Don't you think there should be at least one person on the set who knows what they're talking about if they're going to devote 6+ minutes to a topic?  

Matt is stuck in a ridiculous position.  He's the only one on the panel who can even defend statistical analysis or PECOTA, and he's the moderator.  A moderator who then commits a massive error by putting up a straw man for the panel to knock down: (at 4:01 in video)

"If you had one thing to trust though, and you had to make ONE CHOICE, do you believe the guy with the calculator or the guy with the straw hat and the stopwatch that's at the ballpark, YOU CAN ONLY PICK ONE."  (caps my emphasis)

Matt!  YOU DON'T HAVE TO PICK ONE!  That's the whole point!  Sabermetrics and scouting both belong in EVERY major league front office!  Nobody has to pick one.  That's like asking the president, "if you can only pick one, the facts and intelligence on your desk or your gut instinct, what do you choose?"  The answer is: STUPID!  I use everything!  

But asking three guys who were each started on their path to MLB, millions of dollars and an eventual seat on a players' panel at MLB Network by a SCOUT SIGNING THEM, whether they'd pick a "guy with a calculator" or a scout, you are asking a really silly question.  And again, this is a direct by-product of having not a single person in the discussion who is actually knowledgable about the topic.  

I know Matt knows the benefits of sabermetric analysis and he offers a couple of valid counterpoints in the discussion but basically he's offering the classic false-neutral position which devalues the debate some more.

Fox News has had better in-depth analysis than this, although actually the similarities are strikingly familiar.  

Awful Announcing: MLB Network Tries To Take On PECOTA

And That Happened: Why MLB Network Is A Failure

Aztecs Baseball Weekend In Review

A tremendous weekend for SDSU Baseball ended with a three-game sweep of UNLV yesterday, 15-2 at Tony Gwynn Stadium.  The Aztecs have now won four straight and seven of their last eight games, improving to 11-6, 3-0 MWC.  Thoughts on all three games:

FRIDAY: Over 2,100 take in the game at TGS, leading to a host of logistical problems, from long ticket lines to parking structure-change making issues.  By the 3rd inning it was hard to find an empty seat in the house.  They've come to see Strasburg and Stephen does not disappoint, striking out the side in the 1st and 2nd innings and recording an insane 10 K's through four innings.  UNLV scores off Strasburg twice, the first involving a walk-steal-balk and the second a strikeout-wild pitch.  Stephen runs up his pitch count, forcing him out after 7 innings, but the big crowd sees 14 strikeouts against just one walk, with six hits and two runs allowed.  Three in the first and one in the 2nd is enough for the SDSU offense, and the bullpen survives a shaky 9th from Addison Reed to close out a 4-3 win.  Erik Castro shows signs of breaking out of a season-long slump with his first HR of the year and a 2-for-3 night.  

SATURDAY: It's a matinee, scheduled head-to-head with the start of the MWC basketball championships in Las Vegas, so I knew the crowd would be a big drop from Friday night to Saturday afternoon.  About 1600 less, as a matter of fact.  Those watching the basketball disappointment at home miss one of the most complete games of the Aztecs' season to date.  The story is Jon Berger, a senior who got boxed around badly last year but has found great control and a breaking pitch to complement his excellent changeup.  Berger strikes out a career-high 10 over 8 innings, all but one on his slow-slow-slower change.  After a slow start against impressive whip-thin UNLV freshman right-hander Tanner Peters, the Aztecs rise up with three runs in the 5th and three more in the 8th.  Pat Colwell's in the middle of things as usual, leading off with a base hit for the 5th straight game, he finishes 2-4 with an RBI.  Leading 6-1 in the 9th, Tony Gwynn thinks he's going to be able to rest his closer, until James McLaughlin loads the bases with nobody out.  In comes Reed for his best appearance of the season, striking out three straight for his career-best 6th save.  6-1 SDSU the final. 

SUNDAY: Here is where the Aztecs can really separate themselves from other teams in their conference.  While UNLV throws Corey Hales, a senior with an 8.10 ERA, the Aztecs counter with Tyler Lavigne, a solid sinker-baller who has kept his team in the game every time out.  SDSU's pitching depth is starting to reveal itself, and never more so than today.  Lavigne strikes out 8 in 5+ innings, and is never hit hard.  The only three singles he allows are little rollers or choppers off his sinker.  The Aztecs' bullpen finishes off with four shutout innings, with three hits and no walks allowed.  Oh, what about the offense?  Feasting on the back end of the Rebels' pitching staff, SDSU bangs out 14 hits and 15 runs in a 15-2 laugher.  Ever since his walkoff HR against USD last Friday, Cory Vaughn has been on an absolute tear: 

7 games: 10-26 (.385), 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 9 RS, 3BB, 2 HBP, 4K, 4 SB

Yesterday Cory ripped an 0-2 fastball up the middle for a two-run single in the first, used his speed to leg out an infield dribbler for a single in the 3rd, laced a triple down the left-field line and into the corner in the 5th (part of a 7-run inning), and then blasted a hanger over the left-field fence for a 3-run HR in the 7th.  He never got to bat again, finishing a double short of the cycle.  It was also great to see Josh Chasse, a hard worker who struggles to crack the outfield lineup, come off the bench and go 2-2 with 3 RBI, including his first college HR, a no-doubter in the 8th.  

Kansas is in town Tuesday and Wednesday and then it's BYU for a three-game series on Thursday-Friday-Saturday.  I would anticipate the SDSU rotation for the next five days to be as follows, but it's not official:

Ryan O'Sullivan-Tuesday

Nate Solow-Wednesday

Stephen Strasburg-Thursday

Jon Berger-Friday

Tyler Lavigne-Saturday

Thoughts on Peavy and the WBC

What makes baseball great?  A million things.  But here's one I'm thinking about this morning...

Baseball is the game that simultaneously offers the most and least variance.  What do I mean?  In any given baseball game, given that the skill levels are at least of a baseline level, any team can get the better of another.  The 63-99 Padres can beat the 97-64 Cubs, and make them look bad, on a particular Sunday.  But over the course of a season, the best teams win, the flaws are revealed, the strengths play out.  

The power of knowing this is understanding that you just can't read too much into any one game or performance.  You really just can't.  Even a handful, even a set of results are too little.  It  takes time and a large sample size to really get an accurate judgement on a player or a team.  And people who throw out wild proclamations after a game, questioning a player's heart, talent or conviction after any one performance, are just revealing themselves as reactionaries.

I lay all this out to wade into the discussion of what I saw last night in the World Baseball Classic against Puerto Rico.  Jake Peavy got strafed, again.  The pitcher who has been one of the loudest and biggest fans of the WBC was lit up for six runs in two innings, including a bombastic HR from Felipe Lopez.  Jake had that deer-in-the-headlights, uh-oh look that I've seen from him so many times before.  Early in his career on the road.  In the playoffs against St. Louis.  In the play-in game against the Rockies.  Throw it, spin around and see where it lands.  

Another big game, another big stage for a great young pitcher who we see at his greatest, but the rest of the nation often sees faltering.  Why did Peavy fail yesterday?  Did he want it too bad?  Did he not train well enough in the offseason?  Did he fall victim to a spring training mindset in a championship tournament?  Is he "not a big game pitcher"?  What does it all mean?

Er, sorry.  It probably means nothing.  It probably means he left some pitches up.  It probably means Javier Vazquez pitched well for Puerto Rico yesterday and Jake did not.  It might be just that simple.  There might be nothing more to learn.  

I was thinking of all sorts of excuses this morning, for Team USA and for Peavy.  The Latin players have an advantage over the Americans, because they play baseball all winter long and have a Caribbean World Series before the major leagues open camp.  They are ready, while our guys' bodies are just naturally geared to be ready for the summer, not the spring.  Their pitchers have their arms stretched out and they're used to pitching at 100% right now.  

But if that's true, what about the Dominican team?  Why did they lose, and to the Netherlands for goodness' sake?  TWICE?  Why can Mexico get mercy ruled one game and then mercy rule their opponent the next?  

The simple truth is the one that's hardest to accept: there's no rhyme or reason to any of it.  Let the 16 teams of the WBC train and play each other for an 80-game season.  Then, you will find out who has the best team, the best pitching staff, the best offense, etc.  What, you don't have time?  Want to play the 2009 MLB schedule instead?  I don't blame you.  Me too.  

So we're left with a double-elimination crapshoot where no result can be taken too seriously.  Is Japan really the best team in the world?  They won in 2006.  If Venezuela, or the U.S., or Cuba, or Puerto Rico wins this year, are they the best?  We will never know.  The Netherlands beating the DR just makes the point more than anything else I can write.  In an 80-game schedule with their pool region as their division, the Dutch win 10-15 games.  They may beat the DR 1-2 times in 16 tries.  But they go 2-0 in a two-game season in the WBC.  

It's fun, it's dramatic, it's enjoyable, just not particularly insightful.  So I'm going to try to shelve any big thoughts on Jake Peavy and what this latest subpar performance says about his ability to win a big game, and whether it's buyer beware for a playoff team that wants to trade for Jake, and whether all the hue and cry about keeping or trading him matters much if he only pitches big in small situations...because all of that would be reactionary and needless.  I'm going to root on Team USA tonight against the Netherlands and hope they win.  I'll hope for Jake to get another shot to pitch in the WBC Finals.  But beyond that, reading too much into the WBC is probably just an invitation to look foolish later.  

Exciting Friday

My goodness, this is an exciting Friday morning.  What's got me fired up?  

• For fans and followers of SDSU sports, there aren't too many days like this.  Ideally, you would be in Vegas for the doubleheader at Thomas & Mack Center.  At 2:30pm, Beth Burns' Aztecs take the court against UNLV, trying to cap the San Diego Smackdown of Vegas basketball, in the MWC Women's Semifinals.  At 6pm, it's the men in their critical semifinal matchup against BYU.  Hopefully a great number of Aztec fans are making the spontaneous weekend trip.  Man, I wish I could be there.  But then again...
• Being here in San Diego isn't so bad either.  If you're here in America's Finest City, follow this little itinerary with me and you'll actually pick up a bonus third SDSU thriller.  First, watch the women's game on Ch4 in HD this afternoon.  Then, after the ladies punch their ticket to the MWC finals, off to Tony Gwynn Stadium.  Bring a jacket or sweater, it'll be one of those cold, clear nights, and there will be a persistent breeze coming from home plate.  Strasburg is pitching tonight, and the opponent is...Vegas!  Of course!  It's the all-UNLV weekend.  If the Aztecs bring the confidence from their Wednesday comeback to the plate tonight, it should be a great evening of SDSU baseball.  Set the DVR to tape the SDSU/BYU men's game, and listen to the baseball broadcast at the game (I'll be on 1360AM), because I promise not to give the score.  After all, I'll be avoiding it myself.  Then, when Strasburg sets his number against the Whiffin' Rebels (15?  18?  22?), go home happy, grab a hot (or cold) drink, and press play on the men's game.  Bink!  3 great Aztec contests, two tourney games, and a live baseball game featuring one of the best pitchers in the nation, a rare live treat.  Who's with me?  Huh?  Who's with me?
• I'll be sending faraway good luck wishes to Charity Elliott and the UCSD women's team, as they get started with the Division II NCAA Western Regionals tonight against Cal State Dominguez Hills, up at Seattle Pacific University.  The Tritons need to win three games to win the region and advance to the Elite Eight (there are eight regions in D-II, unlike the four regions in D-I).  The top seed in the region is the host Seattle Pacific, a team that has ousted UCSD from the playoffs three times in the last five years.  If UCSD wins today they play either Alaska-Anchorage or Northwest Nazarene on Saturday.  You can hear an interview with Coach Elliott and UCSD women's player Annette Ilg on this week's Triton Talk, by clicking here.
• If I hadn't watched Sportscenter this morning, I would have had no idea that one of the greatest games in college basketball history went down last night.  Syracuse beats UConn in the Big East Tournament 127-117 in 6(!!!!!!) overtimes.  Even the highlights were exhausting to watch!  One of the safest bets in Vegas today: going with West Virginia against the exhausted Orangemen.  Guard Johnny Flynn led Syracuse by playing 67 minutes in the game.  Yes, that's a school record.  Now, the local angle: this can't get a mention on the front page of the U-T sports?  Anywhere?  Not even in that little box at the top as a tease?  It was in the small type roundup on Page 2; yes, at the top of that, but still.  VERY easy to miss thumbing through the paper.  I know you guys are down and out, and obviously I appreciate the commitment to covering local sports, but this is a 6-OT classic we're talking about here, not chopped liver.  Today, plenty more tourney action around the country, that's exciting.
• We got hits yesterday from North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and South Korea.  Thanks to everyone for checking in, please sign up and subscribe for free, and bookmark us as a daily place to come and talk San Diego sports!  We took some important steps toward podcasting this week, and hope to be up and running with a whole new layer of content very soon!

One More Run

Well, thank goodness.  I did not want to see it end like that.  Ladanian Tomlinson has been too special as a San Diego Charger, too great, to just see his career end with an injury, a release, a new team and a new uniform, a Chunky Soup re-shoot in different colors.  In a time when the word loyalty has been replaced by restructuring (as in, we are restructuring as a company so we no longer have loyalty to you, here's the door), it was LT's loyalty to his city and his team which led him to swallow some financial pride and restructure his contract.  

Is it any surprise to see that this deal gets done with LT and Dean Spanos coming to an agreement, and then dragging along the kids who have been battling in the playpen (Smith, Condon)?  The former wear their hearts on their sleeves, the latter both battle ultimately for the bottom line.  This time, heart wins.

But I think the head wins here too.  To me, objectively evaluating the San Diego Chargers' championship chances in 2009-2010, they are closer to the goal with LT and Sproles at running back than they are with an unknown draft pick and Darren Sproles.  Tomlinson has a lot to prove next season, and so do the Chargers.  Both are set for a bounce back year, and for those who believe that LT is washed up and the Bolts are making a mistake, I suggest you continue reading. 

Tomlinson's 2008 was a season of struggle not because he was a step slow, but because his step was slowed by a toe injury which he never let heal.  Right when he was back to himself, exploding from the line against the Broncos, he suffered a detached tendon.  If LT had sat for 4-6 weeks after the opening week injury against the Panthers, he undoubtedly would have run for a higher average, and performed at a higher level.  But LT at that time sublimated his personal interest for the team's interest, believing that they needed him in order to succeed.  

In the weeks that followed he suffered; both the pain of the injury, and the barbs of the critics and loudmouth fans/callers who said he had lost his mojo and was washed up as a running back.  I heard it every week after the Chargers lost, back when they used to let me go on the radio every day.  Amazingly, people called HIM selfish for playing in pain.  A selfish player would absolutely have sat down and smiled as his team struggled without him.  LT grimaced and continued, even as the team clanked and stumbled through a 4-8 start.  

At their lowest point, LT got mad.  He said quite famously and hilariously that he would be "God-dogged" if a team of his quit.  Four days later, the patsy Raiders came to town and let LT and the boys run all over them.  Four weeks after that, the Chargers were beating the Colts in the playoffs, with LT breaking away on the first play of the game for a 14-yard run, grimacing once again, this time on a detached tendon.  Darren Sproles took it from there, but he couldn't take it all the way to the Super Bowl.  The Chargers will need LT for that.

Next season's roster and salary cap choices will be tougher than this year's, and the Bolts have already had to jump through some hoops to keep their backfield intact.  Shawne Merriman might not be a Charger in 2010, Cromartie might be gone, and that's just the start of it.  This intriguing, electric, aggravating, and varied collection of talent is here for one more run, and then it may scatter to the wind.  For all we know, by 2011, the Chargers could be in the City of Industry.  

This is no time to part ways with a legend in a cold-hearted salary cap move.  This is the time to get everyone together, read them Henry V's speech about "once more unto the breech dear friends", and then do everything humanly possible as an organization to win the Super Bowl in 2009.  The championship window for this team, this time, is still open, thanks to bringing back Ladanian Tomlinson.  The window WILL close at the end of the year.  It may reopen again soon, or it may not.  But we Charger fans, we happy few, should celebrate the fact that indeed, we will have one more run at the top.  Let's hope that this time they get it right.