A Friday Column

Clearing the morning fog on a foggy morning, one multiple-subject column at a time...

• When the SDSU baseball team catches the ball, they can shut down just about any team with their pitching staff.  When they fail to catch the ball, games such as last night's 6-2 loss to BYU happen.  With two outs in the 3rd and nobody on, Nate Solow gave up a little chop single to left, just off Erik Castro's glove.  Next, BYU's big hitter Sean McNoughton hit a little ground ball to short, easiest play in the world. Ryan O'Sullivan didn't get in front of it and tried to pluck the ball, and it stayed down when his glove came up.  The error opened the gates, and as has happened many times in Nate Solow's career, trouble followed.  Nate walked the next better on four pitches, and then grooved a 2-1 fastball to Brandon Relf, who ripped a three-run double down the left-field line.   3-1 BYU, and their pro prospect starter Jeremy Toole, with a mid-'90s fastball and just-OK slider, worked 8 strong innings to protect it.  The Cougars made every play in the field, including two double plays, a diving catch in center, and a runner thrown out at home plate.  The Aztecs gave up two more unearned runs in the 8th on three walks and a missed flyball in right by Cory Vaughn.  Realistically SDSU could have won the game 2-1 if they had just made routine plays in the field.  Oh well, six-game winning streak by the boards.  Strasburg throws tonight, so get there early, hoping for another 2000+ crowd.  
• Oh, just mentioning it again, the BYU/SDSU game tonight will be on XTRA 1360, and I will be doing the play-by-play.  5:45pm pregame, 6:05 first pitch.  Somehow that information didn't make the U-T this morning but did find its way to the North County Times.  Tomorrow's game will be on the radio as well, a 1pm start.  That's part of a 619 Sports-laced doubleheader, as I hand off after the game to Chris Ello at Cox Arena for the SDSU women's first-round NCAA game against DePaul, a 5pm tipoff.  
• I really wish I could be in two places at once, because the SDSU 2nd round NIT game tonight should be a unique affair.  USD's Jenny Craig Pavilion packed with Aztecs fans, and Kansas State in town.  The smaller venue and the out-of-place feel might even enhance the experience.  I hope the atmosphere and energy lift the Aztecs, because there is some concern about the matchup.  The Wildcats have the size underneath to make life very difficult for SDSU.
• 3 hours, 42 minutes.  That was last night's time-of-game for the Korea/Japan game at Petco Park.  A 6-2 game.  Way.  Too.  Slow.  Add the postseason-style ad package to any baseball game and you instantly make the game far less enjoyable.  The slow pace of international play just adds to this.  And, the games are played at times when nobody in their right mind would be watching past the West Coast.  I've got to say, as a big-time fan and supporter of the WBC from the start, they are losing me a bit this time with the space between games and the pace of games.  How can you get a feel as a team when you've played six games in well over two weeks?  
• So much of what's wrong with the WBC comes from the half-in, half-out mentality of MLB.  The 2nd and 3rd rounds are played in the U.S., and spring training is extended and revised to make room for the Classic.  But clubs are wary about risking their stars to the competition, and stars are concerned about injury and disruption.  To me it's clear what needs to happen.  Every four years, you actually treat this thing like a World Cup or Olympics.  You bring MLB to a halt for four weeks in the middle of the season.  Right smack dab in the middle of summer.  Everyone plays.  All the stars are in midseason form, the arms are stretched out and loosened up, and you'll find the players loosening their fears about playing for their country.  It's all about routine for baseball players.  March is for conditioning, not angry games.  June-July is for playing ball.  Put the classic at a time when it can be played well.  Add games to the schedule.  Let people grow and fall in love with the teams, instead of barely being introduced to them before they are gone.
• Oh, but but but...what about the money lost by stopping the season?  What about all the other players, what do they do?  Figure it out.  The NHL closed down for the Winter Olympics.  Soccer clubs loan players and make adjustments.  This is what I mean: if you're REALLY committed to the idea of a WBC, go all-in to make it a great event.  This half in-half out mentality leads to a half-assed Classic which still is OK but could be much, much better.
• Maybe it was just the weak slate of games yesterday until the UCLA game at night, but the first day of March Madness didn't really grab me like it normally does.  I mentioned it in the comments of yesterday's thread, but once again, the networks are doing their best to ruin the sports they pay ungodly sums of money to broadcast.  College hoops games should be 2 hours, period.  Adding 30 minutes of ads and promos just makes the game uneven and fitful in its pace.  And I really am trying not to wish ill on the obnoxiously precocious "very smart little girl" who wants to have her "big girl seat" in the Chevy pickup truck.  Please go away from my life "very smart little girl", and never return.
• Spring has officially begun.  This pleases me.  Last winter sucked.

Coming Together

I was at the baseball game at Tony Gwynn Stadium between Kansas and SDSU.  This two game series is one of those quiet, unnoticed but truly important moments in the Aztecs' season.  The Mountain West (as we saw in hoops) has its identity issues in every sport, but in baseball the conference is seen as weak.  It's hard to get more than one team in from the conference UNLESS a team really schedules well and shows well against tough non-conference competition.  For the last couple of years Tony Gwynn has really been trying to beef up the schedule and test his team against top schools from the West and Midwest.  Last year the Aztecs showed well against USD but lost to teams such as Missouri, Long Beach State, Oregon State and Arizona.  Instead of getting a winning streak revving the Aztecs started 11-10 and finished 31-28. 

This year's start looked very similar to last year, with SDSU beating USD four out of five but struggling against Cal State Fullerton, Kansas State and Pacific.  At 7-6, the Aztecs started last week with their most important win of the year to date, the 6-run 9th inning comeback at UCLA.  Then, last weekend, all three starters shined on the mound as State swept UNLV.  Which brings us back to last night, and Kansas in town for two.  10-5 on the season, with a strong schedule and some impressive wins, the Jayhawks stood between a possible big time winning streak and another stop-and-start pattern for the Aztecs.

Ryan O'Sullivan got the start for SDSU, the freshman coming in from shortstop to make his 4th start on the mound.  Thanks to the aggressive schedule, Ryan has faced nothing but tough teams in his midweek starts, and he came in to last night with an 0-1 record and a 7.04 ERA, by far the highest on the staff.  Ryan has been solid at short but has struggled badly at the plate the last couple weeks, and you could sense he was hungry to contribute to a win.  

For the first time last night, it really came together for O'Sullivan on the mound.  He had a sinking, moving fastball working and retired 12 in a row.  Ryan also showed a solid slider to right-handers and an offspeed breaking ball.  O'Sullivan really has an aggressive, bulldog attitude while he is pitching and the infield fed off his energy and made good plays behind him.  

Cory Vaughn continued his tear in the 2nd inning by taking an outside fastball deep to right-center field for a wall ball.  Most would have had a double on the play but with his speed Vaughn easily made 3rd base.  That same speed revealed itself on the next play, when Mitch Blackburn hit a reasonably hard grounder to short.  Vaughn was moving on contact and the shortstop had no play but first base.  1-0 Aztecs.

Kansas freshman right-hander Lee Ridenhour was spectacular from there.  With a mean fastball and filthy slider, Ridenhour struck out 8 over 7 innings with just three hits allowed.  The Aztecs wouldn't even sniff another scoring threat on the night.  Which left SDSU hanging on for dear life in the late innings.

In the 7th Easton Gust booted a routine grounder for a leadoff error, and after a sacrifice O'Sullivan issued his first walk of the night.  The 7th was uncharted territory for the freshman, but Tony Gwynn stuck with him against Kansas' best hitter, third baseman Tony Thompson.  The sophomore slugger had a 23-game hitting streak active, 1 away from tying the Kansas record.  It looked like he had it on a deep launch to right field, which was carrying over Cory Vaughn's head.  But Cory continued his star performance by somehow catching up to the ball, leaping, and grabbing the ball high over his head on the dead run toward the wall.  Both Kansas baserunners were off and running and Vaughn was able to throw back in and double off the lead runner to end the inning.  A spectacular play!

Chase Thomas came on in relief to start the 8th but walked the leadoff man, and Andrew Leary relieved him.  The right-hander has become an unsung hero on the Aztecs, so I will sing his praises here.  Even after Brandon Meredith made a shaky decision trying to throw for the lead runner on a bunt and failing, Leary came back to strike out three in a row and get the game to the 9th. 

On came Addison Reed, who was a perfect 6-for-6 in saves so far this year.  A leadoff single was followed by a sacrifice and a strikeout.  Then, it was the big hitter Thompson at the plate for one more chance.  Reed got ahead 0-2, Thompson fouled one off, and then Reed lost his grip on a slider and hit Thompson in the back.  Corey Lytle followed with a worm-burner ground ball to 2nd, but Mitch Blackburn booted the play for an error (after making several good plays on the night).  Now with the bases loaded, it was nervous time, but Reed knucked down and got left fielder Nick Faunce to pop out and preserve a 1-0 win.

SDSU has now won 5 straight and 7 of 8, and at 12-6 on the season, the team is coming together and winning games they didn't use to win.  Tonight's game now looms as an even bigger chance, as a win would link up this win streak to the next conference home series against BYU, with the Aztecs' top pitchers coming back around in the rotation.  The game will be on goaztecs.com tonight at 6pm.  

A couple of other notes...

• Why are WBC games as long as World Series games?  I set up last night's Puerto Rico-USA game to tape for 4 hours and still came up short for a 9-inning game.  Grr.  Yay for the USA comeback in the 9th, though.  Now Peavy will get one more chance for redemption, at his favorite stadium in which to pitch, Dodger Stadium.  
• A great first step to redemption for the Aztecs' men last night against Weber State.  Chris was there so I'll leave the analysis to him, but if SDSU can get past their 2nd round opponent and a pretend home court at USD on Friday, they could possibly earn a rematch with St. Mary's and a chance to exorcise one of their demons from this season.

Thoughts on Peavy and the WBC

What makes baseball great?  A million things.  But here's one I'm thinking about this morning...

Baseball is the game that simultaneously offers the most and least variance.  What do I mean?  In any given baseball game, given that the skill levels are at least of a baseline level, any team can get the better of another.  The 63-99 Padres can beat the 97-64 Cubs, and make them look bad, on a particular Sunday.  But over the course of a season, the best teams win, the flaws are revealed, the strengths play out.  

The power of knowing this is understanding that you just can't read too much into any one game or performance.  You really just can't.  Even a handful, even a set of results are too little.  It  takes time and a large sample size to really get an accurate judgement on a player or a team.  And people who throw out wild proclamations after a game, questioning a player's heart, talent or conviction after any one performance, are just revealing themselves as reactionaries.

I lay all this out to wade into the discussion of what I saw last night in the World Baseball Classic against Puerto Rico.  Jake Peavy got strafed, again.  The pitcher who has been one of the loudest and biggest fans of the WBC was lit up for six runs in two innings, including a bombastic HR from Felipe Lopez.  Jake had that deer-in-the-headlights, uh-oh look that I've seen from him so many times before.  Early in his career on the road.  In the playoffs against St. Louis.  In the play-in game against the Rockies.  Throw it, spin around and see where it lands.  

Another big game, another big stage for a great young pitcher who we see at his greatest, but the rest of the nation often sees faltering.  Why did Peavy fail yesterday?  Did he want it too bad?  Did he not train well enough in the offseason?  Did he fall victim to a spring training mindset in a championship tournament?  Is he "not a big game pitcher"?  What does it all mean?

Er, sorry.  It probably means nothing.  It probably means he left some pitches up.  It probably means Javier Vazquez pitched well for Puerto Rico yesterday and Jake did not.  It might be just that simple.  There might be nothing more to learn.  

I was thinking of all sorts of excuses this morning, for Team USA and for Peavy.  The Latin players have an advantage over the Americans, because they play baseball all winter long and have a Caribbean World Series before the major leagues open camp.  They are ready, while our guys' bodies are just naturally geared to be ready for the summer, not the spring.  Their pitchers have their arms stretched out and they're used to pitching at 100% right now.  

But if that's true, what about the Dominican team?  Why did they lose, and to the Netherlands for goodness' sake?  TWICE?  Why can Mexico get mercy ruled one game and then mercy rule their opponent the next?  

The simple truth is the one that's hardest to accept: there's no rhyme or reason to any of it.  Let the 16 teams of the WBC train and play each other for an 80-game season.  Then, you will find out who has the best team, the best pitching staff, the best offense, etc.  What, you don't have time?  Want to play the 2009 MLB schedule instead?  I don't blame you.  Me too.  

So we're left with a double-elimination crapshoot where no result can be taken too seriously.  Is Japan really the best team in the world?  They won in 2006.  If Venezuela, or the U.S., or Cuba, or Puerto Rico wins this year, are they the best?  We will never know.  The Netherlands beating the DR just makes the point more than anything else I can write.  In an 80-game schedule with their pool region as their division, the Dutch win 10-15 games.  They may beat the DR 1-2 times in 16 tries.  But they go 2-0 in a two-game season in the WBC.  

It's fun, it's dramatic, it's enjoyable, just not particularly insightful.  So I'm going to try to shelve any big thoughts on Jake Peavy and what this latest subpar performance says about his ability to win a big game, and whether it's buyer beware for a playoff team that wants to trade for Jake, and whether all the hue and cry about keeping or trading him matters much if he only pitches big in small situations...because all of that would be reactionary and needless.  I'm going to root on Team USA tonight against the Netherlands and hope they win.  I'll hope for Jake to get another shot to pitch in the WBC Finals.  But beyond that, reading too much into the WBC is probably just an invitation to look foolish later.